TERMINAL TECHNOLOGY

Brentwood, TN — December 19, 2005

In looking forward to what the future might bring, it is useful to consider product life cycles. In high school we learned that gravity accelerates falling bodies at a fixed rate in a vacuum. In real life they fall in the atmosphere and reach "terminal velocity" based on their aerodynamic characteristics. Products, technological or not, have a similar tendency. Instead of the atmosphere, products are affected by such important factors as the end goals of the user. The best example is the carpenter's claw hammer. It accomplishes the goal of driving nails. Although there are variations, the hammer has not changed in a long time, and you can drive a nail with a hundred-year-old hammer. Products keep improving until they completely meet the user's needs. At that point, no one is willing to pay for "new and improved," and research for additional improvements dries up.

It is easy to see terminal technology in today's products. For most users, the PC lacks only two things - security and reliability. Browsing the Internet, word processing and building spreadsheets have reached an end-point of sorts. It is hard to envision improvements, except... In framing a house today, contractors use pneumatic nail guns, and the hammer is the exception. The end goal is to drive nails, not swing a hammer. If you think about word processing programs, the end goal is to transfer thoughts into words on a screen or paper. The ultimate way to do that is to speak your thoughts, not type them on a keyboard. Dictation programs will get better and eventually the keyboard will go the way of the hammer. In the meantime, if someone invents a USB mental telepathy device, dictation programs will be useless.

This brings up the most difficult issue with technology -- the enabling technologies. When computers used line printers, it was hard to envision printers on desktops and fast, flexible printing. Dot-matrix and laser printers revolutionized on-demand printing in ways that previously were unimaginable.

A closely related factor is manufacturing cost. Infrastructure is the key component, and the falling costs of many "technology" products is based on the vast investments in new factories to build larger and larger silicon wafers and, now, LCD display panels.

So, what is coming soon or a bit later? The PC will become more secure (and maybe more reliable) with release of the next Microsoft operating system supposedly next year. True Tablets are coming, but I don't think they are imminent; they will evolve through several iterations. Competing with the Tablet, small handheld devices will improve and take over many tasks currently reserved for the PC. Wireless in all its forms will also improve, with resulting improvements in productivity. Higher speed Internet, more wireless (WiFi, Cell, Bluetooth) and more specialized devices with embedded and unobtrusive intelligence will free us from the desktop and keyboard. There will be more integration of voice to increase our mobility.

Political and commercial conflicts will inevitably slow things down. The phone companies have fought to keep local governments from creating large WiFi areas. (Some do exist.) Competitive pressures keep drivers from enjoying widespread WiFi availability in truck stops without signing up for multiple networks. The lower setup cost of a WiFi network, coupled with competitive pressures, will eventually result in "open" (no cost) WiFi for drivers.

The long term future of information technology and transportation will be defined by user goals and enabling technologies. Information technology will be as accessible and second-natured as the television remote. Your car has an incredible amount of information technology. Do you know or care what chipset or programming language was used to control your memory seats? Information technology will be the tool it is intended to be, utilized without concern for how the tool was made or why it works.

by Ernie Betancourt, CEO
Innovative Computing Corporation

Contact Innovative's Media Director